How has corn contributed to increasing energy production without compromising food security?

According to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for biofuels is expected to exceed 215 billion liters per year in 2030, 19% higher than the 180 billion liters consumed in 2024. In scenarios of net zero emissions by 2050, this demand could increase significantly, driven mainly by the decarbonization targets of the transport sector, in the road, air and maritime modes. According to the OECD-FAO, similarly, the demand for food is expected to grow by 13% by 2032, mainly due to population growth in African and Asian territories. In this context, there is the extensive debate commonly called “food versus fuel”, in which studies question whether or not the production of biofuels can compromise the supply of food and its prices (for more details, read “Does biofuel production threaten food security?

Corn ethanol is one of the fuels questioned in this debate. In the first decade of the 2000s, with the growth in production and demand for biofuels, some studies were published indicating the existence of evidence that highlighted problems related to competition with food production, due to the increase in North American production of corn ethanol[1]. However, currently in the Brazilian context, the combination of technology, increased productivity and the use of multiple crops enable synergies between biofuels and food security, promoting more efficient use of land and increasing food supply. The cultivation of raw materials in succession systems has challenged the simplistic idea of ​​competition for land use between food and biofuels.

Data indicate that, despite the increase in demand for corn for ethanol production in Brazil, there was no reduction in the amount destined for human and animal consumption, nor a significant increase in the price of corn in the local and global markets. Between 2017/18 and 2023/24, while the demand for corn for ethanol production increased by 13 million tons, the production of corn destined for animal feed expanded by 9,5 million tons, the use for food, seeds and industrial use increased by approximately 4,5 million tons and exports by 20 million tons. Throughout the historical series, it can be observed that corn was destined mainly for feed, then for exports.

According to the FAO definition (1996, 2006), the term food security can be defined based on four pillars: (1) food availability, (2) physical, economic and sociocultural access to food, (3) adequate use of food and (4) stability and sustainability over time for all agents. The literature on the impacts of bioenergy production on food security is mainly related to pillars (1), (2) and (4). Most of the studies carried out to date evaluate generic types of biofuels at a global level, disregarding regional specificities, without giving due attention to production aspects, specific technologies, systems and particular production chains, such as the occurrence of multiple harvests in Brazil, for example.  

The impact on food security should also take into account how the income and consumption of low-income families will be affected by increased biofuel production and how consumers will change their choices between alternative agricultural and food products. The entry of the second-crop corn ethanol industry in Brazil has positively impacted the income, consumption, and well-being of families, providing better access to food. This was one of the results of the study published by Gurgel et al. (2024), which identified positive changes in family income in the Central-West region after the entry of corn ethanol industries in the region. This result is explained by the greater generation of jobs and demand for local services, which boosted the increase in food consumption and the well-being of poor families in this region.

The study by Gurgel et al. (2024) shows the importance of producing second-crop corn ethanol as a driver of local development, economic growth, increased income and consumption for different social classes, and new jobs. Additionally, biofuel can reduce GHG emissions compared to fossil fuels and offer renewable energy alternatives, contributing to the transition to a low-carbon economy. In addition, it can support food and energy security, as long as its production is carried out responsibly, without compromising ecosystems and food availability (for more details, read “Contribution of double-cropped maize ethanol in Brazil to sustainable development”, indicated in the references).

It is worth noting that despite the increase in demand for corn for ethanol production in recent years, consumption represented only 12% of total production in the 2023/24 harvest. The amount of corn processed for ethanol production has increased tenfold in six years. Despite the increase in demand, there has been a drop in the price received by corn producers in the state of MT since 2021/22, following the price trend in the international market.   

Brazil, as one of the largest producers and exporters of agricultural commodities in the world, has a strong contribution to the global supply of biofuels and food, and the capacity to ensure this expansion based on sustainable techniques. In this sense, the implementation of “low-risk land use change” techniques, also known as “land-saving”, make it possible to maximize biofuel production, without the need to expand new agricultural areas or compete with food production (read more in “Poupa-Terra Effect: is productivity the key to the environmental sustainability of Brazilian agriculture?”). Technological advances in production, better management and handling practices and productivity gains have enabled better use of land in production systems, with no competition from the production of raw materials used for food and biofuels.

The favorable climate in the Central-West region of the country, especially in the state of Mato Grosso, allows corn to be grown immediately after soybeans. Before the 1990s, corn in Brazil was produced exclusively in a single harvest. With the adoption of the second harvest, the crop began to occupy areas previously idle during the soybean off-season, becoming the main form of production. In the 2023/24 harvest, second-harvest corn represented 78% of national production, totaling 90 million tons.

Brazil has the potential to further expand its second-crop corn cultivation, considering the underutilized soybean areas during the off-season months, which could double the volume in the future. A study by EPE (2024) estimated that there is a potential of 16,6 million hectares (Mha) for expanding second-crop corn cultivation in already consolidated soybean areas with adequate and favorable climate conditions, with a production capacity of an additional 38 billion liters of ethanol per year. Linked to this production, there is also the additional generation of by-products, mainly Dried Distillers Grains (DDG), intended for animal feed, which replaces part of the grains that were previously used for this purpose. Thus, due to the entry of DDG into the market and the greater supply of feed, there is a reduction in the demand for soybeans and corn used for animal feed and, consequently, a reduction in the price of animal feed, in addition to the reduced need for land for the production of these grains. Additionally, DDG is a high-value source of protein that allows for greater efficiency in the herd fattening time, contributing to the intensification of livestock farming.

Additionally, recent studies by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) and the National Center for Research in Energy and Materials (CNPEM) estimated that there are 110 Mha of pasture areas in Brazil with moderate or severe levels of degradation, with 28 to 36 million hectares suitable for agricultural conversion (SILVA, 2024; BOLFE et al., 2024). Another important point that deserves to be mentioned is the productivity gain of the main energy crops. Although productivity gains have been relatively stable in recent harvests, soybeans, corn, and sugarcane have not yet reached their theoretical productivity limits, close to those found in experiments with controlled production factors.

In the 2023/24 harvest, the productivity of second-crop corn in the state of Mato Grosso reached 6,9 tons per hectare (t/ha) and soybeans 3,2 t/ha. Thus, in 2023/24, 1 hectare of the soybean and corn succession system produced 10,1 tons, that is, 218% more than a single soybean area. The soybean-corn system contributes to increasing grain production in the same area, optimizes land use and increases the supply of agricultural inputs for various uses, including the production of ethanol, food and animal nutrition. 

In short, the Brazilian corn ethanol production system, based on multiple harvests, has not been competing for land with food production, since it is planted in a succession system with a first-harvest crop, allowing the integration of energy and food production in the same production unit. In addition, the Brazilian production system contributes to tackling climate change and reducing CO2 emissions, being an integrated food and energy production system, capable of supporting food and energy security.

[1] The most emblematic study of this period was the one produced in 2007 by Runge and Senauer, called “How biofuels could starve the poor”, widely debated in subsequent literature.

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CONAB (2024a). Monitoring the Brazilian Grain Harvest.

CONAB (2024b). Agricultural Prices.

EL SAFTY, S.; AWADALLA, N.; EL DAHAN, M. (2022). Exclusive: About 300,000 T of wheat bought by Egypt stranded in Ukraine -trade | Reuters.

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NÓIA JÚNIOR, RS, SENTELHAS, PC, (2019). Soybean-maize succession in Brazil: impacts of sowing dates on climate variability, yields and economic profitability. Eur. J. Agron.103, 140–151.

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