What is SAF and what is Brazil's potential in the aviation biofuels market?

The SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) is a type of biofuel designed for use in aircraft as a more sustainable alternative to traditional aviation fuels (jet fuel), which are traditionally derived from petroleum. It is an advanced biofuel produced from renewable sources such as vegetable oils, bioethanol, agricultural residues, wood residues, and other organic materials, and has positive effects in reducing emissions.

AFS can be considered “sustainable” since their raw materials do not compete with crops or food production, nor do they require incremental use of resources such as water or land clearing, and, more broadly, they do not promote environmental challenges such as deforestation, loss of soil productivity, or biodiversity.

Furthermore, because they have properties similar to the kerosene currently used in aviation, SAFs are considered a drop-in fuel, that is, when no significant adaptations are required in either engine technologies or distribution infrastructure, and can meet different mixing conditions established by regulatory bodies.

According to data from Climate Watch and the World Resources Institute, international civil aviation currently accounts for about 2% of global emissions. Alternatives to fossil fuels widely used in other transportation segments, such as electrification, are not yet viable for aircraft due to technical issues specific to aviation itself (in the case of batteries, high weight and low range). Hence the significant importance of biofuels in the decarbonization of the sector.

Initiatives to mandate the use of SAF in other countries around the world.

Source: EPE (2024)

SAF production involves converting renewable raw materials, such as vegetable oils, agricultural waste, and other organic materials, into a fuel suitable for aircraft use. There are several technologies and processes for SAF production, the three most popular being: (1) Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), made from vegetable oils, residual oils and animal fats; (2) Fischer-Tropsch (FT), which allows production from a variety of different raw materials; and (3) Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), which converts alcohols, such as ethanol and isobutanol, into hydrocarbons suitable for use in aircraft.

Among the different available routes, the greatest opportunities for Brazil are HEFA production, which could be fueled by vegetable oils derived from Brazilian soybeans, and ATJ, made from sugarcane or corn ethanol. Internationally, the HEFA route is considered the one with the greatest potential for large-scale production, given its market consolidation and lower technological and production costs.[1]

Current global mandates in the aviation sector envisage achieving the “net zero emissions"by 2050, with 65% of emissions reduced solely through the use of SAF[2]. To achieve this, it is expected that the sector's consumption of biofuel will need to be multiplied by 7,5 times, rising from the current 60 billion liters in 2022 to 449 billion liters in 2050. If this demand is met, Brazil would have ample opportunity to produce or supply inputs for the global production of SAF.

Estimated demand for SAF use by commercial aviation by 2050, if global commitments to use biofuel are met

Source: Prepared by Insper Agro Global based on data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA, 2025)

In addition to government mandates, market initiatives such as CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation), linked to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), attempt to encourage market targets and mechanisms for environmental offsetting in aviation, which can encourage and accelerate the use of SAF.

But SAF also faces significant challenges—the main ones remain costs (utilization and production) and large-scale production. High production costs and competition for renewable resources may limit its widespread adoption: the price of a gallon of SAF today, in dollars, is up to twice that of traditional fuels. Currently, according to information from some airlines[2], fuels represent almost 1% of these companies' operating costs, making this level of price increase still unviable for markets. Future expectations are that large-scale, demand-driven production, combined with technological advances, will make SAF more affordable and competitive in the coming years.

The implementation of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) in the aviation sector requires the development of public policies that promote increased production of this resource and reduced operating costs. In Brazil, the National Sustainable Aviation Fuel Program (ProBioQAV), regulated by Law 14.993/2024, known as the "Fuel of the Future Law," establishes concrete guidelines for the sector. The program establishes progressive mandates, requiring airlines to reduce their emissions by an initial 1%, with targets to increase to 10% by 2037, prioritizing the use of SAF as a sustainable alternative.

Despite advances in public policies, SAF production still faces substantial technical and economic challenges in the country, stemming from the complexity of production processes and the high technological requirements that demand significant investment. In this scenario, Brazil still demonstrates structural limitations, both in the private and public sectors, which hinders the country's consolidation as a prominent global player in this market. However, Brazil's historical experience in biofuel production points to remarkable competitive potential. Gains in this market can result in boosts to economic development, technological advancements, and the consequent generation of jobs and income. Therefore, it is essential that the country adopt a strategic and integrated approach to achieve these goals.

Recommended readings:

[1] See more at THOMAZ, L.; PIMENTEL, C. Study on governance and public policies to encourage the production of sustainable aviation fuels. ProQR Alternative Fuels without Climate Impacts, 2022.

[2] See more at CADO SAF Registry

[3] "Fuel already represents 50% of airline costs, says Gol president”, news published in Valor Econômico on March 22, 2022. Accessed in January 2025.

[4] "Sustainable aviation fuels in Brazil", EPE presentation, September 2024. Accessed October 2025."

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