New round of US tariffs protects key Brazilian agribusiness export products.

The new round of tariffs announced by the United States has generated concern in various sectors of the Brazilian economy. The measures stem from the conclusion of an investigation conducted under Section 301 of the Convention. Trade Act The 1974 resolution, initiated in 2025, identified practices considered detrimental to U.S. economic interests and recommended retaliatory measures. The process is now moving to the debate and public consultation stage. Even so, the list of exceptions released by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) significantly reduced the effective scope of the measures, preserving a relevant portion of Brazilian exports from tariffs.

The current context involves two distinct processes. The first refers to the investigation conducted by the United States based on Section 301 of the Trade Act, specifically targeting Brazil. The scope of the investigation covers topics such as the PIX system, barriers to US ethanol, illegal deforestation, court decisions, and piracy, among other aspects. As a result, the application of tariffs of 25% on Brazilian products was proposed.

The second process involves countries that, according to the investigating body, have shortcomings in combating forced labor. The analysis considers both the occurrence of forced labor in domestic production and the importation of products originating from countries associated with these practices. The investigation and tariff proposals cover 60 countries, including countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Russia, South Korea, Switzerland, and Japan, for example.

In this case, the proposal foresees the application of tariffs of 12,5% ​​on the countries included in the investigation. For Brazil, if both measures are effectively implemented, the additional tariff related to forced labor would be added to the 25% rate proposed within the scope of the investigation conducted under Section 301.

Without going into the merits of the consistency or otherwise of the investigation results, it should be noted that the The final document released by the USTR contains 73 pages of products that would be excluded from the additional tariff charge. For the Brazilian case (a similar list in both processes). Among the items that would be excluded from new tariff measures are coffee, seeds, beef, orange juice, some fruits, fertilizers, cellulose, and other products relevant to bilateral trade. In the case of agribusiness, the scope of the exceptions deserves highlighting as it covers a significant portion of Brazilian exports destined for the US market (62,8% of total exports in 2025, in US dollars).

The composition of the list of exceptions suggests that the definition of the measures was not only associated with the objectives of the commercial investigation, but also with the structure of the production chains and the supply conditions of the US market. Products in which Brazil holds a significant position as a supplier were largely covered by the exemptions.

This aspect gains relevance in a context of inflationary pressure on food in the United States. In April 2026, food inflation (CPI, food group) accumulated 3,2% over 12 months, with notable increases in categories such as beef and coffee. The imposition of high tariffs on products with a significant share of the domestic consumption basket could amplify price pressures already observed in the US market.

The direct impacts of the potential new measures on Brazilian agribusiness tend to be heterogeneous across different activities. Although a significant portion of exports has been preserved by the announced exceptions, uncertainties remain regarding the indirect effects on trade flows, investments, price formation, and international competitiveness. Among the segments potentially most exposed to the new tariffs are wood, sugar, tobacco, fish, leather, and textile fibers—products that do not appear on the exception lists released so far. It is important to note that even products for which Brazil has export quotas to the US, such as sugar from the North and Northeast regions, would also be subject to tariffs.