Opinion: Trump attacks Brazil by targeting China

The letter from the President of the United States to the President of the Federative Republic of Brazil, dated July 9, 2025, is unique and, in conjunction with developments in the same period, indicates a possible strategic shift in the Americas, with profound and long-term implications. While the announced trade measures are dynamic and potentially reversible, the geopolitical and strategic choices outlined are long-lasting. This matter demands the utmost seriousness from the Brazilian authorities in charge. The ongoing struggle for global hegemony is also playing out in South America, and at this time, every action and word will count.

The letter specifies unilateral trade measures to be implemented by the US, subject to negotiation, effective August 1, 2025. These measures follow a similar pattern to those applied to other nations. However, the economic rationale for such an approach proves fragile, given that Brazil has accumulated significant trade surpluses in goods and services in favor of the US, totaling approximately half a trillion dollars over the past 15 years. Furthermore, the 50% tariff on imports from Brazil is the highest ever imposed.

The two introductory paragraphs provide the rationale for these measures: mentioning an allegedly unfair lawsuit against a Brazilian politician, anti-democratic electoral maneuvers, and censorship of US-based social media platforms. Notably, Brazil is the only country to date to be targeted by trade sanctions for reasons essentially related to domestic politics, a first under the current US administration.

However, the central thrust of the argument transcends such straightforward justifications, pointing to a comprehensive geopolitical dispute underway in the Western Hemisphere. The southern region of South America emerges as a key area, where global influence remains undefined. The Southern Cone, which includes Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Chile, is strategic in terms of projecting power over three oceans (the Atlantic, Pacific, and Antarctic) and accessing the global South's logistics routes. The Southern Cone projects capabilities onto the Antarctic continent, its surroundings, and even into the southern skies, crucial for space exploration. In the broader geopolitical landscape, a dynamic is being reconfigured: Chinese influence in Argentina has been significant over the past two decades, but there are strong signs of change. The intensification of negotiations between high-ranking US and Argentine officials in recent weeks, accompanied by bilateral trade and defense-related agreements, reinforce a US strategic reallocation in the region. On the other hand, Brazil has demonstrated a recent inclination towards China, both through bilateral relations and as a prominent advocate of the BRICS' defiant stance towards the US.

Brazil will be tested. The well-being of its people and the values and principles of its Constitution will be at stake. This is not about legal proceedings, nor virtual censorship, and certainly not about commerce. This is about a reconfiguration of the spheres of projection and dominion over neighboring territories. Reimagining the Monroe Doctrine of "America for Americans"—formulated in the early 19th century—it is now necessary to neutralize Chinese presence and influence everywhere, by any means necessary.

Add to this the "Section 301" investigation that the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) launched on July 15 against Brazil. This legislation allows the U.S. government to investigate and impose penalties against trade practices of other countries deemed "unfair, discriminatory, or restrictive of U.S. commerce." In Brazil's case, the investigation focuses on practices related to digital commerce and electronic payment services, unfair preferential tariffs, interference with anti-corruption measures, intellectual property protection, access to the ethanol market, and combating illegal deforestation. This opens up another series of potential sanctions against important Brazilian production sectors.

The agricultural sector is a strength and asset for Brazil, and represents one of the main prizes at stake in this power struggle. Brazilian agribusiness is rapidly expanding toward Asia and China, which account for two-thirds of its exports, with the US as its main competitor. Brazil must demonstrate to the US that tariffs on agricultural exports will ultimately harm its consumers of coffee, orange juice, sugar, beef, sugar, and pulp. On the other hand, it must emphasize that Brazil is a major user of sophisticated technology and services from American companies, agricultural inputs, and an operating base for US-owned trading companies. Hindering Brazilian agribusiness exports to the US will encourage them to divert to other markets. The main destination would be... China – something that goes against the vital strategic interest the US seeks to preserve in the region.

* Note: O Prof. Dr. Alberto Pfeifer will join the Insper Agro Global research team from July 2025, as a “Policy Fellow in Geopolitics and International Strategy”

Are you already following our official channels? Click and follow our whatsapp channel, follow us on LinkedIn and sign up to receive our biweekly Newsletter. Stay up to date with research and knowledge on global agribusiness issues.