Insper Agro Global discusses the geopolitics of fertilizers and launches a study on its impacts on Brazilian agribusiness.

The growing global geopolitical instability imposes a paradox on Brazilian agribusiness: while the country consolidates its position as a major food exporter, it simultaneously becomes more vulnerable to risks in the supply of essential inputs for agricultural production. This contradiction was at the heart of discussions at the event "Global Geopolitics of Fertilizers: Impacts on Brazilian Agribusiness," held on November 26th by Insper Agro Global. The meeting, which marked the launch of a groundbreaking study on the subject, brought together industry experts to analyze how the reconfiguration of the international landscape—marked by armed conflicts, trade protectionism, and economic sanctions—is transforming the fertilizer market into an arena of geopolitical disputes with direct consequences for food security and the competitiveness of Brazilian agriculture.

During the discussions, Ricardo Tortorella, executive director of the National Association for the Diffusion of Fertilizers (Anda), highlighted the National Fertilizer Plan (PNF), praising its guidelines, but noting that its implementation still lacks traction to offer the necessary legal security for private investments. According to him, although the plan points to solutions for several bottlenecks, these advances have not yet materialized in practice, which limits long-term decisions in the sector.

Bernardo Silva, executive director of the National Union of Raw Materials Industry for Fertilizers (Sinprifert), emphasized that instability and uncertainty in Brazil hinder the entry of foreign capital, especially in a sector with a long maturation period, which still lacks the necessary incentives to unlock sufficient value for investors. Silva also presented an overview of the global fertilizer market, analyzing the main players and Brazil's level of self-sufficiency in these inputs.

Luiz Carlos Corrêa Carvalho, from the Brazilian Agribusiness Association (Abag), highlighted that the intensive use of fertilizers in Brazilian agriculture has contributed significantly to increased productivity, especially in a tropical climate that demands greater use of inputs and pesticides. He also stressed that this intensive use does not, by itself, explain soil degradation processes. According to him, degradation is more associated with the inappropriate use of inputs, often not adapted to tropical conditions, than with the use of fertilizers per se.

Alert regarding Brazilian vulnerability.

The event marked the launch of the working paper “Global Geopolitics of Fertilizers: Impacts on Brazilian Agribusiness ,” prepared by Insper Agro Global. The paper analyzes how the escalation of global geopolitical instability in the last three years—marked by conflicts such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the confrontation between Israel and Hamas, in addition to Donald Trump's return to the presidency of the United States with an assertive and protectionist stance—directly affects the fertilizer market.

According to the study, the global fertilizer market functions as a bilateral oligopoly, connecting a few countries rich in mineral and energy resources to large food producers. Brazil, which exported US$164,3 billion in agricultural products in 2024, is heavily dependent on imported fertilizers, making it especially vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

Data reveals that, in 2024, Brazil imported 90% of the fertilizers it consumed, comprising 43% potassium (K), 35% nitrogen (N), and 22% phosphorus (P). The most significant dependence is on potassium, with 97% of the supply coming from abroad. The country absorbs 23% of global fertilizer imports and is a price taker, while Russia and China account for 41% of global exports.

Among the main risks identified are the concentration of global supply — since 40% of Brazilian fertilizers come from Russia, a country subject to sanctions and external pressures —, the energy risk, evidenced by the 105% increase in energy costs and the 129% increase in fertilizer prices between 2021 and 2022, and the growing competition for raw materials, such as phosphoric acid, which is increasingly in demand by the electric battery industry.

Given this scenario, the study proposes strategies to mitigate risks and ensure the security of the supply of essential inputs for maintaining the competitiveness of Brazilian agribusiness. Recommendations include strengthening national production, diversifying international suppliers, modernizing logistics, and employing strategic diplomacy to ensure a stable supply of agricultural inputs to Brazil, reinforcing its position as a reliable food supplier amidst the turbulence of the new geopolitical order.



Access the full study released at the event: Click here and check it out