COP 28: the timid consensus on energy transition

The 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP28, in Dubai ended with mixed expectations. On the positive side, there was the announcement of the approval of the Loss and Damage Fund, a support mechanism for countries that are already routinely suffering from the effects of global warming. On the downside, there was the controversial statement by COP President and head of the UAE’s state-owned oil company, Al Jaber, that “there is no science” behind the demand for a reduction in fossil fuels.

The main outcome, which is being called the “UAE Consensus”, was the surprising text that managed to reconcile advances towards the transition from fossil fuels. The Global Stock Take (GTS) — which is the Global Stock Take of progress towards the Paris Agreement, of the aggregate impact of all national climate policies and targets — shows that countries are not achieving the emission reductions needed to keep the increase in global temperature to 1,5°C. In 2025, before COP30, new plans (NDCs) will need to be presented. In this sense, the action framework (objectives and how to do it) needs to be agreed upon in a final decision text. The final version, according to analysts, represents “the first step towards the end of fossil fuels”. Although the document contains some gaps and ambiguities, the final result is considered balanced.

The Sharm el-Sheikh Joint Working Group on Climate Action Implementation in Agriculture and Food Security (formerly Koronivia) has made progress in discussions on recognizing the role of agriculture in combating global warming. The group has defined a work plan until COP31 in 2026 to promote the implementation of initiatives and public policies and appropriate financing for the adaptation of agriculture to climate change and ensuring food security. This plan includes the basis for the preparation of an annual report on progress and gaps, as well as an annual calendar of interactions to disseminate experiences in implementation, in addition to an online portal for recording, monitoring and sharing countries’ policies and experiences. It should be noted that this document has not yet been fully agreed upon by the parties, but is a first draft to be refined at the interim meetings between COPs that take place every June in Bonn.

Another area of ​​dialogue highlighted at COP28 concerns “Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action”, or simply “Food Systems”, which is the jargon most commonly used, including in Brazil. It refers to a set of increasingly vocal arguments that advocate a reform of food systems, that is, the way food is produced, to limit global temperature rise to 1,5°C.

In this context, UAE COP28 Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action was announced with the support of 134 countries, including Brazil. The text presents as a shared vision the idea that “the path to fully achieving the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement must include agriculture and food systems, which in turn must urgently adapt and transform to respond to the imperatives of climate change”. The text highlights some priority actions that should be considered in the countries’ NDCs by COP30 (2025), such as adaptation and resilience initiatives with financial and technical support. Progress on the topic is expected through the involvement of the private sector and cooperation between countries.

The Global Adaptation Goal (GGA), the document that will decide on financing and measuring progress in adaptation, has made little progress. It has few objectives, a weak work plan, and no commitment to financing. It is worth noting that local adaptation structures contribute to protecting global supply chains, a lesson that should have been learned from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Finally, at a time of discussion about the establishment of a regulated carbon market in Brazil and its potential integration with the voluntary market, it is worth mentioning some considerations on this topic. In addition to the official negotiations of the delegations at COP28, the conference was marked by a movement of reaction from the sector that operates the voluntary market. In response to a series of reports of fraud, excesses and violations of rights in carbon credit projects, the main certification standards announced during the conference a collaborative initiative to improve transparency and the creation of standardized indicators to measure additional benefits. They also announced compliance with the requirements of the Integrity Council for Voluntary Carbon Markets, an independent governance initiative that aims to improve the environmental integrity of projects.

The recognition at COP28 that the climate crisis is essentially a fossil fuel crisis is an important milestone. Although this should have happened before, this slow construction is very characteristic of multilateral decisions. This characteristic also implies huge challenges ahead. In this context, Brazil's role continues to be that of providing nature-based solutions that promote mitigation and potential local co-benefits.

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