Drought and fires generate negative impacts on agriculture

Brazil is facing one of the worst droughts in its history, according to data from the National Center for Monitoring and Alerts for Natural Disasters (Cemaden), with a lack of rain affecting almost the entire country. In the wake of this problem, fires are worsening, which are intensified by the climate situation. Although some of these fires are caused by criminal actions, the drought contributes to their rapid spread, making control difficult and combating them even more challenging.

According to data from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Brazil recorded an alarming growth of 2024% in fire outbreaks in August 144 compared to the same period in 2023. Of the fire outbreaks recorded up to September 2024, around 50% occurred in the Amazon biome.

MapBiomas estimates on land use in areas affected by fires in Brazil, from January to August 2024, indicate that most of it occurred in Grassland Formation (24,70%), followed by Pasture (21,10%), as shown in the figure below.

The current drought is the result of a combination of factors, part of which is related to the effects of El Niño — a climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean in the region close to the Equator. The occurrence of this phenomenon at high intensity has brought several impacts, such as heavy rains in the southern region of the country — which contributed to the large volume of rain and disasters in Rio Grande do Sul (culminating in the climate tragedy of 2024) — and dry weather in the North, Central-West and Southeast regions.

The dry climate in the north of the country affects important river basins and makes vegetation more susceptible to fire. With the flow of air from north to south of the country, not only the fires but also the resulting smoke and soot spread, bringing even more dryness, heat and air pollution to other regions. According to monitoring by MetSul, the smoke from the intense fires in the Amazon, Cerrado and Pantanal has already reduced air humidity to levels below those of the Sahara Desert, falling below 10%.

In this scenario, agricultural activity is suffering significant impacts, whether due to losses caused directly by fires or due to losses in production due to prolonged drought. According to data collected by the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA), R$14,7 billion in losses were recorded on approximately 2,8 million hectares of rural properties in Brazil.

One emblematic case is that of sugarcane. Since August, fires have affected more than 181 thousand hectares of this crop in São Paulo, which is already reflected in the increase in the prices of crystal and refined sugar, in addition to the possibility of an increase in the prices of ethanol. The estimated loss in the state alone is R$1,2 billion, according to the Organization of Associations of Sugarcane Producers of Brazil (Orplana), without assessing other possible future impacts, such as soil degradation and greater need for cultural treatments during replanting — in a crop that was already facing problems due to drought in the main producing regions. The CNA estimates losses of R$2,7 billion in the activity throughout the country.

It is important to highlight that, for many years, burning was used for the straw removal process in sugarcane production. However, since the 2007 agro-environmental protocol and subsequent legislation, practically all current production is mechanized and has not used burning in its production process for years.

In the case of coffee, the drought recorded, mainly in Minas Gerais, has significantly affected the crop, limiting supply and leading to historic price records, both for Arabica and Robusta coffee.

Some crops are even more sensitive, such as fruits and vegetables. Oranges, in particular, are one of the most affected, facing difficulties in maintaining quality due to the water crisis in the orchards. It is important to consider that Brazil is the world's largest producer of the fruit and one of the main exporters of orange juice, meeting a large part of the international demand.

As for grains, September and October are planting months in the main producing regions, and the lack of rain may cause delays in planting. This process may reduce the growing window, resulting in lower production and productivity, in addition to a possible delay in the second harvest until next year. So far, official institutions, such as Conab, still project high production in the next season. However, the continuation of the current drought may reverse this scenario.

In the livestock sector, the months of August and September are typically when there is a low supply of animals raised on pasture, which raises prices. However, the fires have worsened this situation, with many livestock farmers facing difficulties in feeding their cattle, being forced to resort to using feed, which increases costs — which, according to Esalq/USP, may be further pressured by a possible increase in grain prices due to the drought. The shortage of animals ready for slaughter and the transition to confinement — a more expensive system — increased the price of arroba of fattened cattle by 10,55% in September, reaching R$ 265,05, according to data from Cepea.

By the end of 2024 and 2025, a low-intensity La Niña is expected to occur — a climate phenomenon that is the opposite of El Niño and is characterized by the abnormal cooling of the waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon tends to affect rainfall differently in different regions of Brazil. Specifically, soil moisture is expected to recover and dryness to decrease in Central Brazil. On the other hand, the South of the country may experience reduced and irregular rainfall, worsening existing problems, such as drought, and compromising the quality of crops.

Based on the IPCA-15 data for September 2024, it is possible to observe significant variations in the prices of some products, already reflecting the impact of the fires. The fruit group showed a significant increase, with emphasis on lime oranges, which registered an increase of 18,41%, followed by Bahia oranges, with 2,81%, and national fruits in general, which rose 5,91%. In addition, the price of meat increased by 1,76% in the month.

The recovery of affected areas, especially soil, can take years, generating high costs for producers, who will face higher expenses with inputs. Brazil is facing a challenging scenario, in which agriculture and livestock are directly impacted by climate change and environmental degradation. This context requires urgent measures to mitigate these effects and protect national production, in addition to long-term strategies for climate adaptation and increased use of financial instruments, such as credit and rural insurance, in order to guarantee the stability of producers.

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