Organized crime is encroaching on Brazilian agribusiness, increasing risks.

Brazilian agribusiness, responsible for 29% of the national GDP—equivalent to R$ 3,8 trillion in 2025, according to data from CEPEA/Esalq-USP—faces a threat that goes beyond climatic adversities and market fluctuations: the structured infiltration of transnational organized crime. To discuss this scenario, Insper Agro Global brought together prosecutors, researchers, and representatives of the private sector on the evening of March 11th at the event "Illicit Activities in Brazilian Agribusiness," where a preliminary study on the phenomenon was presented. The event was opened by Marcos Jank, coordinator of Insper Agro Global, and the presentation of preliminary results of the study was given by Alberto Pfeifer, policy fellow of the institution.

One of the central points of the study, which will be released in full later, is the paradigm shift identified since 2015. Until then, crime in rural areas was predominantly local, marked by isolated land conflicts, opportunistic robberies, and the actions of small, independent gangs. Since then, however, the rural environment has taken on a strategic role for organized crime, becoming a logistical hub integrated into international drug trafficking routes.

According to the survey, the PCC operates with a more business-oriented logic: contaminating grain and meat shipments with cocaine in so-called rip-on/rip-off operations, investing in fleets of double-trailer trucks and airstrips on front farms, and maintaining connections in neighboring countries such as Paraguay and Bolivia. The Comando Vermelho, on the other hand, prioritizes territorial control in the Legal Amazon, financing itself through activities such as illegal mining and logging, in addition to maintaining connections with transnational criminal networks in the region.

The study maps the incidence of illegal activities at different stages of the production chain and indicates that the problem is distributed across multiple links. According to the survey, 176 million hectares of private properties overlap with public areas due to fraudulent registrations in the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR). In 2024, arson fires affected 59 hectares of sugarcane fields in São Paulo, with estimated losses of R$ 350 million in the state and R$ 1 billion in the country. The illegal pesticide market is estimated to generate around R$ 20 billion per year, while pirated seeds generate annual losses of R$ 10 billion, with 11% of the national soybean area cultivated with illegal varieties. Machinery thefts increased by 37,5% in the first half of 2025, and cargo theft generated losses exceeding R$ 1,2 billion in 2023. In logistics, the so-called "caipira route" appears as one of the relevant vectors of trafficking.

With high circulation of cash capital and complex production chains, agribusiness also offers favorable conditions for concealing illicit assets. The so-called "paper cattle"—the simulation of non-existent herds to justify income—is among the most recurrent methods. The acquisition of high-value machinery can function as a mechanism for converting illicit resources into physical assets. Preliminary results of the study also point to the use of shell gas stations, distributors, mills, and fintech companies in money laundering and fraud schemes, including fraudulent tokenization of grains. In the fuel sector, the frauds and money laundering schemes mapped by the presented material moved tens of billions of reais between 2020 and 2024.

The limits of criminal prosecution

These challenges were discussed in a panel moderated by Marcelo Godoy, special reporter for Estadão specializing in public security, with the participation of Adriano Mellega, prosecutor from Gaeco specializing in combating criminal organizations linked to the counterfeiting and smuggling of pesticides; Nilto Mendes, manager of the Committee to Combat Illegal Products at CropLife Brasil and former member of the Federal Police; and Leandro Piquet Carneiro, professor at the Institute of International Relations at USP and coordinator of the School of Multidimensional Security.

The study identifies three critical bottlenecks in the application of the Law on Criminal Organizations (Law 12.850/13) in rural areas. The first is the difficulty in proving the stability of criminal cells, whose members provide sporadic services to different groups. The second is the practical impossibility of conducting on-site investigations in areas dominated by crime, which can lead to procedural nullities. The third is the low effectiveness of plea bargaining in remote regions, where the coercive power of the factions silences witnesses.

In response, the study proposes a three-tiered approach. Strategically, it recommends the creation of a National Rural Security Policy coordinated between ministries and with international cooperation at land borders. Tactically, it suggests focusing on financial intelligence and the creation of mobile rural squads with external agents. Operationally, it advocates for satellite and drone monitoring integrated with the Federal Police, as well as the adoption of traceability mechanisms via blockchain by the private sector. The conclusion of the material is that the phenomenon should not be treated as an isolated sectoral problem, but as a systemic challenge requiring an equally coordinated response.

Watch the full event recording. by clicking here.